Diamonds in the Rough - May 1999 
written by Greg Kellogg

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It's May and with the FanEx Analysis Draft upon us, I thought I would revisit an article from days gone by that translates well to the here and now.

When I first penned this article in June of 1997, I wanted to look at the players that could have been considered sleepers in that year's draft. My choices had mixed results. But then that is to be expected whenever you are truly talking about sleepers.

Let's define the term sleeper. First to qualify for this list, I have to feel the player will be ranked in the bottom half of fantasy starters at his position. For this article, I will only consider quarterbacks that I feel will be ranked below 10 and running backs or wide receivers ranked below 15 on most people's lists. Also, to qualify, I have to believe that the individuals will perform in the top 10 at their positions.

I'll also try to project some statistics for these players and tell you why I expect them to achieve so much higher than most people do.

With all that in mind, let's get started!

 
Quarterbacks
Name Team Att Comp Yards Int's TD's Rush Yards TD's
Jon Kitna SEA 500 290 3,600 12 23 50 200 2
Comments Seattle, by signing Mike Holmgren, has committed to becoming a red zone passing team. In fact, Green Bay, under Holmgren, passed the ball 67 times in the red zone. These passes led to 15 TD's. In 1998 Seattle threw the ball 38 times inside their own 20, scoring 11 TD's. I know Kitna is no Favre, but what you may not realize is that he was perfect inside the 10. That's right. Kitna was 4-4 with 4 TDs inside his 10. In fact the addition of Sean Dawkins gives the Seahawks a big (6'4" 215) receiver that is ideally suited for red zone passing. Joey Galloway has been clocked (unofficially) at 4.15 in the forty giving Kitna the receiver he needs to stretch the field. And rookie Karsten Bailey is a 5'11" 200 pounder with speed. Bailey has the size to rest Dawkins and the speed to compliment Galloway. Ricky Watters is ideally suited for the run and shoot, and it will be difficult to keep second year back Ahman Green off the field. Green has an explosiveness seldom seen in Seattle. All this will take pressure off Kitna in his first season as a full time starter.
Trent Green STL 550 300 3,600 12 25 60 180 1
Comments Last season Trent Green showed skills few would have believed he possessed. And he did it with a patchwork set of wide receivers. This season he will be throwing to two of the best receivers in the NFL when he tosses the rock towards Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk. St. Louis also picked up the top rated rookie wide receiver when selected North Carolina's Tory Holt. Between Holt and second year receiver Az-Zahir Hakim, Green should have a much easier time finding open receivers. And even if he doesn't, well Marshall Faulk is the best receiving running back in the NFL. Green's 14 red zone TD's should give give Rams coach Dick Vermeil confidence in that phase of the game. Especially when contrasted against his one red zone interception. Finally, when you look at Green's penchant for protecting the ball as compared to Banks' inopportune turnovers, it should be expected that the Rams will have much more success on the offensive side of the ball in 1999.

 
Running Backs
Name Team Att Yards TD's Rec Yards TD's Total
Yards
Total
TD's
Priest Holmes BAL 320 1,375 12 50 500 2 1,875 14
Comments Where the heck did this guy come from? I can't believe anyone honestly projected Priest Holmes to be the answer to the Ravens' running game, but he was. In just 13 starts Holmes tallied 1,268 yards and 7 TD's. In 1999 he will have a coach with a proven track record as an offensive innovator. He led his Minnesota team to an NFL record number of points in 1998. Now those that suggest all of Holmes success was due to the ineptness of the Bengals should take a deeper look at his numbers. In point of fact, Holmes gained over 100 total yards in six games. He scored TD's in five games. In the seven games where he had over 15 touches he gained 1,022 combined yards and scored six TD's. In the nine games where he had 15 or fewer touches he gained just 246 yards and scored just one TD. The lesson? Give the man the dang ball!
Tim Biakabutuka CAR 300 1,250 12 35 420 2 1,670 14
Comments Lest we forget, Biakabutuka was the eighth player taken overall in the 1996 draft. And he was selected by Bill Polian, a man with an impeccable record for evaluating and drafting talent. Now I know some of you think this season's fiasco tarnishes him some, but we won't know for sure for another three years. And his selection of Biakabutuka is about to be proven as a good one. Biakabutuka suffered an injury that traditionally takes two years to return to form from. He was playing again in the year he was injured. In 1997 he showed little, but I feel that was more because of his injury than anything. By the end of 1998 Biakabutuka was running with abandon. In fact, in the Panther's last four games, Biakabutuka accounted for 97, 174, 112 and 132 yards. He also scored four TD's in that span. To truly evaluate Biakabutuka's potential for 1999 we have to look at Fred Lane. The two played against two common opponents. Against St. Louis, Biakabutuka out-gained Lane 112 to 55, though Lane did score a TD. Against San Francisco Biakabutuka out-gained Lane 97 to 59 yards and this time Biakabutuka had the lone TD. Now two games is not a large sample, but when you combine this with the finish that Biakabutuka had (515 yards, 4 TD's) and factor in his greater efficiency in the red zone (3.1 ypc vrs. 2.0 ypc) and his wide receiver like average in the passing game (17.3 ypr) and it seems fairly obvious that he will be given every opportunity to succeed. Finally factor in the fact that new Panther coach George Seiffert comes from a defensive background (defensive coaches love to emphasize the run) who will use his own version of the West Coast Offense and these projections should be very doable for Touchdown Timmy.

 
Wide Receivers
Name Team Rec Yards TD's Rush Yards TD's Total
Yards
Total
TD's
Isaac Bruce STL 85 1,335 10 0 0 0 1,335 10
Comments I think most Fantasy fanatics would acknowledge that when healthy The Reverend is one of the most talented receivers in the game. His problem the past two seasons has been the when healthy part. So why am I expecting Bruce to stay healthy this season? Well for one thing I don't expect him to have to lay out on turf fields nearly as often as in the past. I feel that Green is a much more accurate thrower than Banks was which will enable Bruce to cut down on his straining himself (and his hamstring) to catch errant passes. Also I feel the additions of Adam Timmerman on the line, Marshall Faulk in the backfield and Holt as a receiver will take a lot of the pressure off him. This should free him from the constant double teams he has faced since 1996. Last season Vermeil publicly stated the need to put the ball in Bruce's hands 10 to 15 times a game. With Faulk that requirement should bo down, but the desire to do so will probably remain constant.
Rae Carruth CAR 75 1,200 9 4 35 1 1,235 10
Comments Rae Carruth cut his football teeth as a running back. This makes him very good after the catch. The West Coast Offense is ideal for those players that can turn a 10 yard slant into an 80 yard TD. Carruth has that rare combination of speed, elusiveness and balance to allow him these opportunities. I also believe most of the attention given to the Panther offense will be focused on teammate Muhsin Muhammad. This could prove to be a mistake as Carruth finally fulfills the promise he showed in his rookie season when he led all rookie receivers with 44 receptions for 545 yards and four TD's. With Steve Beuerlein getting the nod from the beginning of the year, Carolina should have a lot more stability at the position than in 1998. Many FFL'ers have noticed the trend for receivers explode in thier third NFL season. Carruth could be this year's version.

All numbers are 1999 Projections.


Other players that very well could or should have been listed include Scott Mitchell, Steve Beuerlein and Kordell Stewart at quarterback; Dorsey Levens, Terry Allen and Corey Dillon at running back; Terry Glenn, Jerry Rice and one of Curtis Conway or Bobby Engram at wide receiver. All should exceed the expectations that most FFLers' currently have for them.

The rookies I will be watching in training camp include Cade McNown, Akili Smith and Donovan McNabb at quarterback; Ricky Williams, Edgerin James and Kevin Faulk at running back; David Boston, Troy Edwards and Darnell McDonald at wide receiver.


Well, that's it for this month. Hope you have enjoyed Kellogg's Komments.


Like it? Hate it? Send me a message telling me what you think!
I can be reached at glkellogg@earthlink.net


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