| Let's
define the term sleeper. First to qualify for this list, I have to
feel the player will be ranked in the bottom half of fantasy starters
at his position. For this article, I will only consider quarterbacks
that I feel will be ranked below 10 and running backs or wide
receivers ranked below 15 on most people's lists. Also, to qualify, I
have to believe that the individuals will perform in the top 10 at
their positions.
I'll also try to
project some statistics for these players and tell you why I expect
them to achieve so much higher than most people do.
With all that in
mind, let's get started!
| Quarterbacks |
| Name |
Team |
Att |
Comp |
Yards |
Int's |
TD's |
Rush |
Yards |
TD's |
| Jon Kitna |
SEA |
500 |
290 |
3,600 |
12 |
23 |
50 |
200 |
2 |
| Comments |
Seattle,
by signing Mike Holmgren, has committed to becoming a red zone
passing team. In fact, Green Bay, under Holmgren, passed the
ball 67 times in the red zone. These passes led to 15 TD's. In
1998 Seattle threw the ball 38 times inside their own 20,
scoring 11 TD's. I know Kitna is no Favre, but what you may
not realize is that he was perfect inside the
10. That's right. Kitna was 4-4 with 4 TDs inside his 10. In
fact the addition of Sean Dawkins gives the Seahawks a big
(6'4" 215) receiver that is ideally suited for red zone
passing. Joey Galloway has been clocked (unofficially) at 4.15
in the forty giving Kitna the receiver he needs to stretch the
field. And rookie Karsten Bailey is a 5'11" 200 pounder
with speed. Bailey has the size to rest Dawkins and the speed
to compliment Galloway. Ricky Watters is ideally suited for
the run and shoot, and it will be difficult to keep second
year back Ahman Green off the field. Green has an
explosiveness seldom seen in Seattle. All this will take
pressure off Kitna in his first season as a full time starter. |
| Trent Green |
STL |
550 |
300 |
3,600 |
12 |
25 |
60 |
180 |
1 |
| Comments |
Last
season Trent Green showed skills few would have believed he
possessed. And he did it with a patchwork set of wide
receivers. This season he will be throwing to two of the best
receivers in the NFL when he tosses the rock towards Isaac
Bruce and Marshall Faulk. St. Louis also picked up the top
rated rookie wide receiver when selected North Carolina's Tory
Holt. Between Holt and second year receiver Az-Zahir Hakim,
Green should have a much easier time finding open receivers.
And even if he doesn't, well Marshall Faulk is the best
receiving running back in the NFL. Green's 14 red zone TD's
should give give Rams coach Dick Vermeil confidence in that
phase of the game. Especially when contrasted against his one
red zone interception. Finally, when you look at Green's
penchant for protecting the ball as compared to Banks'
inopportune turnovers, it should be expected that the Rams
will have much more success on the offensive side of the ball
in 1999. |
| Running
Backs |
| Name |
Team |
Att |
Yards |
TD's |
Rec |
Yards |
TD's |
Total
Yards |
Total
TD's |
| Priest Holmes |
BAL |
320 |
1,375 |
12 |
50 |
500 |
2 |
1,875 |
14 |
| Comments |
Where
the heck did this guy come from? I can't believe anyone
honestly projected Priest Holmes to be the answer to the
Ravens' running game, but he was. In just 13 starts Holmes
tallied 1,268 yards and 7 TD's. In 1999 he will have a coach
with a proven track record as an offensive innovator. He led
his Minnesota team to an NFL record number of points in 1998.
Now those that suggest all of Holmes success was due to the
ineptness of the Bengals should take a deeper look at his
numbers. In point of fact, Holmes gained over 100 total yards
in six games. He scored TD's in five games. In the seven games
where he had over 15 touches he gained 1,022 combined yards
and scored six TD's. In the nine games where he had 15 or
fewer touches he gained just 246 yards and scored just one TD.
The lesson? Give the man the dang ball! |
| Tim Biakabutuka |
CAR |
300 |
1,250 |
12 |
35 |
420 |
2 |
1,670 |
14 |
| Comments |
Lest
we forget, Biakabutuka was the eighth player taken overall in
the 1996 draft. And he was selected by Bill Polian, a man with
an impeccable record for evaluating and drafting talent. Now I
know some of you think this season's fiasco tarnishes him
some, but we won't know for sure for another three years. And
his selection of Biakabutuka is about to be proven as a good
one. Biakabutuka suffered an injury that traditionally takes
two years to return to form from. He was playing again in the
year he was injured. In 1997 he showed little, but I feel that
was more because of his injury than anything. By the end of
1998 Biakabutuka was running with abandon. In fact, in the
Panther's last four games, Biakabutuka accounted for 97, 174,
112 and 132 yards. He also scored four TD's in that span. To
truly evaluate Biakabutuka's potential for 1999 we have to
look at Fred Lane. The two played against two common
opponents. Against St. Louis, Biakabutuka out-gained Lane 112
to 55, though Lane did score a TD. Against San Francisco
Biakabutuka out-gained Lane 97 to 59 yards and this time
Biakabutuka had the lone TD. Now two games is not a large
sample, but when you combine this with the finish that
Biakabutuka had (515 yards, 4 TD's) and factor in his greater
efficiency in the red zone (3.1 ypc vrs. 2.0 ypc) and his wide
receiver like average in the passing game (17.3 ypr) and it
seems fairly obvious that he will be given every opportunity
to succeed. Finally factor in the fact that new Panther coach
George Seiffert comes from a defensive background (defensive
coaches love to emphasize the run) who will use his own
version of the West Coast Offense and these projections should
be very doable for Touchdown Timmy. |
| Wide
Receivers |
| Name |
Team |
Rec |
Yards |
TD's |
Rush |
Yards |
TD's |
Total
Yards |
Total
TD's |
| Isaac Bruce |
STL |
85 |
1,335 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1,335 |
10 |
| Comments |
I
think most Fantasy fanatics would acknowledge that when
healthy The Reverend is one of the most talented receivers
in the game. His problem the past two seasons has been the when
healthy part. So why am I expecting Bruce to stay healthy
this season? Well for one thing I don't expect him to have to
lay out on turf fields nearly as often as in the past. I feel
that Green is a much more accurate thrower than Banks was
which will enable Bruce to cut down on his straining himself
(and his hamstring) to catch errant passes. Also I feel the
additions of Adam Timmerman on the line, Marshall Faulk in the
backfield and Holt as a receiver will take a lot of the
pressure off him. This should free him from the constant
double teams he has faced since 1996. Last season Vermeil
publicly stated the need to put the ball in Bruce's hands 10
to 15 times a game. With Faulk that requirement should bo
down, but the desire to do so will probably remain constant. |
| Rae Carruth |
CAR |
75 |
1,200 |
9 |
4 |
35 |
1 |
1,235 |
10 |
| Comments |
Rae
Carruth cut his football teeth as a running back. This makes
him very good after the catch. The West Coast Offense is ideal
for those players that can turn a 10 yard slant into an 80
yard TD. Carruth has that rare combination of speed,
elusiveness and balance to allow him these opportunities. I
also believe most of the attention given to the Panther
offense will be focused on teammate Muhsin Muhammad. This
could prove to be a mistake as Carruth finally fulfills the
promise he showed in his rookie season when he led all rookie
receivers with 44 receptions for 545 yards and four TD's. With
Steve Beuerlein getting the nod from the beginning of the
year, Carolina should have a lot more stability at the
position than in 1998. Many FFL'ers have noticed the trend for
receivers explode in thier third NFL season. Carruth could be
this year's version. |
All numbers are 1999
Projections.
Other players that
very well could or should have been listed include Scott Mitchell,
Steve Beuerlein and Kordell Stewart at quarterback; Dorsey Levens,
Terry Allen and Corey Dillon at running back; Terry Glenn, Jerry Rice
and one of Curtis Conway or Bobby Engram at wide receiver. All should
exceed the expectations that most FFLers' currently have for them.
The rookies I will be
watching in training camp include Cade McNown, Akili Smith and Donovan
McNabb at quarterback; Ricky Williams, Edgerin James and Kevin Faulk
at running back; David Boston, Troy Edwards and Darnell McDonald at
wide receiver.
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