Click for my Bio!
|
Any person that purports to know all of the players that will break out in any season is either a liar, or a prophet. In the case of the first, watch out. In the case of the second ... well make that guy (or gal) your very best friend! The prophets, if they are willing to share, can take a poor start to a draft and turn it into a thing of beauty.
When looking for sleepers there are a couple of things to keep in mind. I will list each of the key components that goes into finding sleepers, and then suggest a few people that I think you can look to have production well in excess of what most people are willing to credit them with. |
Also, I will contrast this piece with my May Diamonds in the Rough article where I gave six of my favorites at that time.
Talent - No individual will ever perform to a level that makes them draftable if they lack the basic talent required. This may seem to be obvious, but just because a player is on an NFL roster does not automatically qualify them as talented enough to succeed at this level. Also, just because a player is taken in a later round, does not automatically suggest he is unable to perform at a high level. When evaluating talent, find out as much as you can about the player. Go back to his college days. Check his stats from his alma mater. Look at preseason games. Watch for quickness, the ability to do things after he touches the ball (RBs the ability to break tackles, WRs the ability to gain yards after the catch, etc). Read any and every thing written about him. Find some people from the city where he played college ball and from the city where he plays pro ball. Ask them if they have noticed anything about him. These will provide glimpses into his physical ability to produce at this level.
Opportunity - No amount of ability means squat if you don't have the opportunity to display it. Ron Rivers might be a great pro running back. But you will never know it as long as Barry Sanders wears a Lion's jersey. When hunting for sleepers, be sure to make sure the player is in a position where the team will have to give him an opportunity.
Supporting Cast - Great ability given the opportunity will usually shine. Usually, rather than always, because football is a teams sport. Ricky Williams is a great talent. He will be given ample opportunity to dominate. He will likely not have a great 1999. Why? Because he is going to be playing for a team that has limited ability in it's supporting cast. Don't get me wrong. I hope I am totally off-base on this call. I love what Williams did with his contract and I will be a fan of his for life. I also believe he will have some success. He may even approach 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. But numbers higher than that are extremely unlikely this year due to his lack of a supporting cast. New Orleans did add some players that could have a positive impact. Wally Williams will improve the offensive line. But that improvement will probably not be readily visible until week six or so. Eddie Kennison will have a more immediate impact, though probably not at WR. No, he will improve the starting field position because of his special teams play. Looking down the road, Ricky Williams should be a great player to have. Looking at 1999, he just is not worth a first round pick, and that is what he is going for in early drafts.
So which magical players fit this category? First, let's throw some players out because so many people are talking about them, they will be drafted way too early to be considered a sleeper. Gone are Jon Kitna and Trent Green. They are currently ranked 11th and 12th at their position on The Average Draft.
Don't expect Duce Staley or Skip Hicks to drop to the eighth round for you. They should be gone before the fourth round ends.
Isaac Bruce and Terry Glenn? Nope. Should be gone by the end of the fifth round.
So who can we pick up as a sleeper. Okay, the first thing to do is to remind yourself that the sleeper is a guy you pick up as a backup with the hopes that he will perform well enough you can start him a few games. Next, look at our three key components to finding a sleeper.
At Quarterback, I give you Jeff Blake and Scott Mitchell. Talent? I think so. In the 95 and 96 seasons, Blake averaged 3,723 yards and 26 TDs passing and 313 yards and 2 TDs rushing. Mitchell, in 95 through 97 averaged 3,580 yards and 23 TDs passing and 90 yards and 3 TDs rushing. The talent is definitely there.
Opportunity? Well, both have been named starters. Blake has rookie Akili Smith and Mitchell has ex-Ram Tony Banks behind them. Both should make it through 1999 as the starter. How long beyond this season they hold onto the starting position will depend in large part on how well they do this season. Sounds a little like that good old intangible known as incentive might come into play too.
Supporting Cast? There are those that would say both players lack the supporting cast required to have a breakthrough (or in their case - comeback) year. I disagree somewhat. Let's not kid ourselves. Neither Cincinnati or Baltimore are in the same class as the Broncos or 49ers. But both teams have some nice supporting weapons. Blake has one of the better young running backs in the game in Corey Dillon. And, should he decide to play, one of the top wide receivers in Carl Pickens. Darnay Scott can also get the job done. The offensive line needs some help and the tight end could be improved, but still, the Bengals have reasonable talent on offense. The Ravens have an up and coming running back in Priest Holmes who is much better than many give him credit for. They have brought in some additional talent at wide receiver to supplement always exciting Jermaine Lewis. And they have let two underachieving linemen go (though I think both Williams and Brown can improve, they did not do well last season). The line will hurt Mitchell some though.
At Running Back, I present Michael Pittman and Travis Jervey. Pittman finished his college career as the second leading rusher in Fresno State history, trailing only Ron Rivers (currently a Detroit Lion). He has bodybuilder's strength and extreme quickness. He is highly regarded as a receiver out of the backfield and looked very good in preseason last year. His playing time was very limited and he is behind Adrian Murrell on the depth chart, but he does possess the talent needed to succeed at this level. Jervey is a fairly large back (225 pounds) with blazing speed. His speed was compared favorably to that of Antonio Freeman last season. He has a career (albeit, limited) average of 4.0 ypc.
Pittman is mired behind Adrian Murrell, so if you take him, you are stuck hoping for an injury. But even if Pittman does not get all the reps he needs this year, I have to believe he is the guy that will be carrying the ball in 2000. Jervey just had his opportunity sky rocket when Garrison Hearst suffered a setback in his recovery from last season's broken leg. Hearst is now expected to miss at least the first game of the season and it could be more. Jervey will need to fend off a challenge from rookie RB Terry Jackson, but I expect him to be up to the challenge.
Supporting casts for both of these players is excellent with the edge going to the 49ers. But both teams were in the 98 playoffs and both are expected to be back this year. Both feature high powered passing attacks which goes a long way in opening up the run.
At Wide Receiver I offer up Hines Ward and Robert Brooks. Ward is a multi-talented player that performed admirably at QB, RB and WR while at the University of Georgia. He combines a superb athletic ability with a fine knowledge of the game. With the departure of Charles Johnson, he should be given every opportunity to start. Brooks was once considered one of the top five receivers in the game. A leg injury and two sub-par seasons have reduced him to where people are not even drafting him. Word out of Green Bay is that he is completely healed and performing like the Brooks of old. If true, he would be a fine addition to any team. Both players have reasonable supporting casts, though I like Green Bay's a bit better than Pittsburgh's this season.
You might notice that several of my sleepers have changed from my May article. They should. So should yours. Just as your rankings should change as you get more information and see some preseason games. Many of the people I had pegged as sleepers in May have climbed people's draft boards so quickly that they cannot be considered sleepers now. That doesn't mean I don't like them. I do. Just that they will cost a lot more to acquire now, than they would have in May.
|
Well,
that's it for this month. Hope you have enjoyed Kellogg's Komments.
Like it? Hate it? Send me a message telling me what you think!
I can be reached at glkellogg@earthlink.net |
