3rd Year Wide Receiver Theory - July '00
written by Mike Murray
 

ARTICLE REPRODUCED FOR FREE AT WWW.DRAFTGUIDE.COM
Draft Guide

To be honest, I don't remember where I first read the article that talked about the 3rd year wide receiver theory, but it caught my attention at the time. What is the third year WR theory, you ask? To quote an article from Toughguy.com:

"The Third-Year WR Theory states that it takes a full two years for a wide receiver to learn and get acclimated to his position, so a WR entering his third season is on the verge of his breakout season."

When I first read the article, it sounded good. The statement above in itself sounds reasonable. And, you could easily point to a number of WR's that have had their first big year in their 3rd year. But how many really do "break out" in year 3? Is there something magical about this year?

After I read the article I looked at the receivers that were entering year 3. I targeted a couple of them as players that were ready. I liked the ones that had at least 700 yards and 5 touchdowns the year before. I was quickly disappointed, however. Not one of them did anything for me. In fact, they did worse than the year before. I no longer trusted the theory, and to this day I only casually look to see if a guy is entering his 3rd year when making my projections. However, I still wondered. Is there something to this theory?

I decided to do some research. I picked up my copy of Stats, Inc.'s Pro Football Handbook 2000 (which is a must have, if you ask me. Great book.), and looked at every WR that played last year. My statistical analysis is based on a group of 115 WR's from last year. The only qualification was that they had at least 3 years experience. Amazingly, the experience level dates back to 1984, so we're dealing with 16 years of stats here.

One of the hardest parts was to decide at what point a player "breaks out". I decided to use a basic scoring system of 1 pt/10 yards + 6 pts per TD, and I used a 12 team league using 2 starting WR's as my measurement. Yes, there are leagues that use 3 WR's, but realistically, you don't want the #36 WR, you want someone in the top 20. I felt that the #24 spot was a good benchmark. I averaged the total points for the #24 WR from 1995 through 1999 and came up with 123 points. This is the mark.

The player stats are listed in a table at the bottom of this article.

1st year

Rookie receivers are typically not worth picking unless you're in a dynasty league or some sort of keeper league. The numbers I found prove this beyond any argument. Of these players, only 6 scored 123 points or better. That's a whopping 5.2% of the receivers I studied.

2nd year

As you would suspect, the number of receivers cracking the 123 point mark in their second year increased. 12 players reached the mark, which works out to 10.2% of the group. That's still not very impressive. Also, 3 of the players had reached the mark the year before.

3rd year

The 3rd year showed an even larger jump, with 23 players reaching 123 points or better. That's 20% of the group, which might lead you to believe that the third year is indeed the breakout year. But wait...

9 of those players had previously reached the mark in an earlier season. If you subtract those players you now have 14, which is only 12.1%.

4th year

The 4th year turned out to be the biggest year for total number of players hitting the mark. In their 4th year, 30 of the 115 receivers went over the 123 point mark. That's 26%! If you subtract the players that had previously gone over 123, you would have only 10, or 8.7% of the group.

Interesting notes

This study shows that there isn't really one particular year that receivers tend to break out. Only 14 out of the 115 players had their first big year in their third year. If you average that number over the course of 16 years, you have less than one player per year. However, this does show that receivers tend to get better each year, which is not surprising. In fact, many of the receivers you'll be drafting this year didn't break the 123 point mark until their 5th year or later.

What I did find interesting was how many receivers performed when their previous year's stats seemed to show that they were ready for a breakout year. I found a large number of guys that were pretty close one year, then they dropped the following year.

So, how exactly do you determine when a player is ready for the big breakout? Experience only appears to play a small role. The biggest factor I found was what the player's role on the team was. If you're looking for breakout WR's (warning, ridiculously obvious statement coming up), look no further than the depth chart. #1 and #2 WR's were the ones that broke out most consistently. #3 guys rarely did well. I know this sounds simple, but if you are not using depth charts when you make your projections, you're missing the boat.

For example, one name that surfaces when talking about potential breakout guys this year is Az-Zahir Hakim (StL). The guy had a great year last year. He had 677 yards and 8 TD's, which likely garnered him a starting position in leagues that use 3 WR's. Those numbers appear to have "breakout year" written all over them, but that's only a small part of the big picture. Consider these factors:

  • Kurt Warner had an incredible year in 1999. He threw for 4353 yards and 41 TD's. That's a lot of numbers to go around to his receiving corps. While I see no reason Warner shouldn't have another great year, I certainly don't see him duplicating those numbers. I would be surprised to see him crack 35 TD's this year, which would be a fine season. However, that's 6 less TD's, and someone has to feel that.
  • Hakim is the #3 WR. Isaac Bruce appears to be healthy again, and Torry Holt is only going to get better. Hakim is also a small guy. He's only 5'10" and relies mostly on his speed (which is impressive).
  • 1999 was a magical year for the Rams. Nothing could go wrong. Almost like the Bears in 1985, except with a higher scoring offense. The chances of another season like it are small.

When you factor these things in, you realize that Hakim is more likely to decline than improve. He may be worth grabbing a little later in your draft, but I think anyone taking him before the 10th round is taking him too high, unless his role changes before the season.

The other major factor when projecting WR stats is the QB. If your guy is getting his passes from Billy Joe Tolliver, don't expect good numbers. Get the guys that have a QB like Warner, Manning, Favre, and Johnson. Again, this sounds simple, but it is important. I know, not everyone will have the chance to get Bruce, Harrison, Freeman, or Westbrook, but you get the idea. Look at the QB and think about how he will do this year.

Do your homework, and you will be fine!

The stats

I've listed the 115 receivers I studied below. I included yards, touchdowns, and points for years one through four for your perusal. In situations where players did not get any real playing time in their rookie year due to injury or whatever, I did not include that year in their stats. Those players have notes associated with them below.

Enjoy!

Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4

 

Player

Yds

TD

Pts

Yds

TD

Pts

Yds

TD

Pts

Yds

TD

Pts

Notes

Albert Connell

138

2

26

451

2

57

1132

7

155

 

 

 

 

Alex Van Dyke

118

1

18

53

2

17

40

0

4

0

0

0

 

Alvin Harper

326

1

39

562

4

80

777

5

108

821

8

130

 

Amani Toomer

12

0

1

263

1

32

360

5

66

1183

6

154

 

Andre Hastings

44

0

4

281

2

40

502

1

56

739

6

110

 

Andre Reed

637

4

88

739

7

116

752

5

105

968

6

133

 

Andre Rison

820

4

106

1208

10

181

976

12

170

1119

11

178

 

Antonio Freeman

106

1

17

933

9

147

1243

12

196

1424

14

226

Bert Emanuel

649

4

89

1039

5

134

921

6

128

991

9

153

 

Bill Schroeder

15

1

8

452

1

51

1051

5

135

 

 

 

 

Billy Davis

0

0

0

0

0

0

33

0

3

691

3

87

 

Bobby Engram

389

6

75

399

2

52

987

5

129

947

4

119

 

Brett Bech

50

0

5

264

3

44

65

1

13

 

 

 

 

Brian Stablein

95

0

10

192

1

25

253

1

31

80

0

8

 

Bryan Still

142

0

14

324

0

32

605

2

73

110

0

11

 

Carl Pickens

326

1

39

565

6

93

1127

11

179

1234

17

225

 

Charles Johnson

577

3

76

432

0

43

1008

3

119

568

2

69

 

Charles Jordan

0

0

0

117

2

24

152

0

15

471

3

65

 

Charlie Jones

524

4

76

423

1

48

699

3

88

90

1

15

 

Chris Calloway

124

1

18

254

1

31

335

1

40

513

3

69

 

Chris Doering

10

0

1

12

0

1

22

0

2

 

 

 

Missed 98

Chris Penn

24

0

2

12

0

1

628

5

93

576

3

76

 

Chris Sanders

823

9

136

882

4

112

498

3

68

136

0

14

 

Chris Thomas

73

0

7

93

0

9

173

0

17

6

0

1

DNP in 96

Chris Walsh

0

0

0

66

0

7

39

1

10

114

1

17

Rarely played 92 & 93

Courtney Hawkins

336

2

46

933

5

123

438

5

74

493

0

49

 

Cris Carter

84

2

20

761

6

112

605

11

127

413

3

59

 

Curtis Conway

231

2

35

546

2

67

1037

12

176

1049

7

147

 

Darnay Scott

866

5

117

821

5

112

833

5

113

797

5

110

 

David Dunn

209

1

27

509

1

57

414

2

53

87

0

9

 

David Palmer

90

0

9

100

0

10

40

0

4

193

1

25

 

David Patten

226

2

35

119

1

18

115

0

12

 

 

 

 

Dedrich Ward

212

1

27

477

4

72

325

3

51

 

 

 

 

Derrick Alexander

828

2

95

216

0

22

1099

9

164

1009

9

155

 

Derrick Mason

186

0

19

333

3

51

89

0

9

 

 

 

 

Derrick Mayes

46

2

17

290

0

29

394

3

57

829

10

143

 

Desmond Howard

20

0

2

286

0

29

727

5

103

276

1

34

 

Dietrich Jells

5

0

1

9

0

1

53

0

5

180

2

30

 

Dwight Stone

22

0

2

196

1

26

92

0

9

332

1

39

 

Ed McCaffrey

146

0

15

610

5

91

335

2

46

131

2

25

 

Eddie Kennison

924

9

146

404

0

40

234

1

29

835

4

108

 

Eric Metcalf

397

4

64

452

1

51

294

0

29

614

5

91

 

Eric Moulds

279

2

40

294

0

29

1368

9

191

994

7

141

 

Ernie Mills

79

1

14

383

3

56

386

1

45

384

1

44

 

Fabien Bownes

0

0

0

146

0

15

69

1

13

68

1

13

Missed 96

Frank Sanders

883

2

100

813

4

105

1017

4

126

1145

3

133

 

Herman Moore

135

0

14

966

4

121

935

6

130

1173

11

183

 

Iheanyi Uwaezuoke

91

1

15

165

0

17

67

0

7

5

0

1

 

Ike Hilliard

42

0

4

715

2

84

996

3

118

 

 

 

 

Irving Fryar

164

1

22

670

7

109

737

6

110

467

5

77

 

Isaac Bruce

272

3

45

1781

13

256

1338

7

176

815

5

112

 

Isaac Byrd

0

0

0

71

0

7

261

2

38

 

 

 

 

Jahine Arnold

76

0

8

0

0

0

0

0

0

 

 

 

Missed 97

Jake Reed

142

0

14

65

0

7

1175

4

142

1167

9

171

Only played one game in 91

James Hundon

14

1

7

285

2

41

112

1

17

5

0

1

 

James Jett

771

3

95

253

0

25

179

1

24

601

4

84

 

James McKnight

25

1

9

91

0

9

73

0

7

637

6

100

 

James Thrash

24

0

2

163

1

22

44

0

4

 

 

 

 

Jeff Grahm

21

0

2

711

1

77

579

0

58

944

4

118

 

Jermaine Lewis

78

1

14

648

6

101

784

6

114

281

2

40

 

Jerry Rice

927

3

111

1570

15

247

1078

22

240

1306

9

185

 

Jimmy Smith

288

3

47

1244

7

166

1324

4

156

1182

8

166

Drafted in 92, did not play until 95

JJ Stokes

517

4

76

249

0

25

733

4

97

770

8

125

 

Joe Horn

30

0

3

65

0

7

198

1

26

586

6

95

 

Joey Galloway

1039

7

146

987

7

141

1049

12

177

1047

10

165

 

Joey Kent

55

1

12

62

0

6

42

0

4

 

 

 

 

Johnnie Morton

39

1

10

590

8

107

714

6

107

1057

6

142

 

Justin Armour

300

3

48

23

0

2

538

4

78

 

 

 

Missed 96 & 97

Karl Williams

246

0

25

486

4

73

252

1

31

176

0

18

 

Keenan McCardell

8

0

1

234

4

47

182

0

18

709

4

95

 

Keith Poole

98

2

22

509

2

63

796

6

116

 

 

 

 

Kenny Shedd

87

1

15

115

0

12

50

0

5

0

0

0

 

Kevin Lockett

35

0

4

281

0

28

426

2

55

 

 

 

 

Kevin Williams

151

2

27

181

0

18

613

2

73

323

1

38

 

Keyshawn Johnson

844

8

132

963

5

126

1131

10

173

1170

8

165

 

Lawrence Dawsey

818

3

100