| 3rd Year Wide
Receiver Theory -
July '00
written by Mike Murray ARTICLE REPRODUCED FOR FREE AT WWW.DRAFTGUIDE.COM |
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To be honest, I don't remember where I first read the article that talked about the 3rd year wide receiver theory, but it caught my attention at the time. What is the third year WR theory, you ask? To quote an article from Toughguy.com: "The Third-Year WR Theory states that it takes a full two years for a wide receiver to learn and get acclimated to his position, so a WR entering his third season is on the verge of his breakout season." When I first read the article, it sounded good. The statement above in itself sounds reasonable. And, you could easily point to a number of WR's that have had their first big year in their 3rd year. But how many really do "break out" in year 3? Is there something magical about this year? After I read the article I looked at the receivers that were entering year 3. I targeted a couple of them as players that were ready. I liked the ones that had at least 700 yards and 5 touchdowns the year before. I was quickly disappointed, however. Not one of them did anything for me. In fact, they did worse than the year before. I no longer trusted the theory, and to this day I only casually look to see if a guy is entering his 3rd year when making my projections. However, I still wondered. Is there something to this theory? I decided to do some research. I picked up my copy of Stats, Inc.'s Pro Football Handbook 2000 (which is a must have, if you ask me. Great book.), and looked at every WR that played last year. My statistical analysis is based on a group of 115 WR's from last year. The only qualification was that they had at least 3 years experience. Amazingly, the experience level dates back to 1984, so we're dealing with 16 years of stats here. One of the hardest parts was to decide at what point a player "breaks out". I decided to use a basic scoring system of 1 pt/10 yards + 6 pts per TD, and I used a 12 team league using 2 starting WR's as my measurement. Yes, there are leagues that use 3 WR's, but realistically, you don't want the #36 WR, you want someone in the top 20. I felt that the #24 spot was a good benchmark. I averaged the total points for the #24 WR from 1995 through 1999 and came up with 123 points. This is the mark. The player stats are listed in a table at the bottom of this article. 1st yearRookie receivers are typically not worth picking unless you're in a dynasty league or some sort of keeper league. The numbers I found prove this beyond any argument. Of these players, only 6 scored 123 points or better. That's a whopping 5.2% of the receivers I studied. 2nd yearAs you would suspect, the number of receivers cracking the 123 point mark in their second year increased. 12 players reached the mark, which works out to 10.2% of the group. That's still not very impressive. Also, 3 of the players had reached the mark the year before. 3rd yearThe 3rd year showed an even larger jump, with 23 players reaching 123 points or better. That's 20% of the group, which might lead you to believe that the third year is indeed the breakout year. But wait... 9 of those players had previously reached the mark in an earlier season. If you subtract those players you now have 14, which is only 12.1%. 4th yearThe 4th year turned out to be the biggest year for total number of players hitting the mark. In their 4th year, 30 of the 115 receivers went over the 123 point mark. That's 26%! If you subtract the players that had previously gone over 123, you would have only 10, or 8.7% of the group. Interesting notesThis study shows that there isn't really one particular year that receivers tend to break out. Only 14 out of the 115 players had their first big year in their third year. If you average that number over the course of 16 years, you have less than one player per year. However, this does show that receivers tend to get better each year, which is not surprising. In fact, many of the receivers you'll be drafting this year didn't break the 123 point mark until their 5th year or later. What I did find interesting was how many receivers performed when their previous year's stats seemed to show that they were ready for a breakout year. I found a large number of guys that were pretty close one year, then they dropped the following year. So, how exactly do you determine when a player is ready for the big breakout? Experience only appears to play a small role. The biggest factor I found was what the player's role on the team was. If you're looking for breakout WR's (warning, ridiculously obvious statement coming up), look no further than the depth chart. #1 and #2 WR's were the ones that broke out most consistently. #3 guys rarely did well. I know this sounds simple, but if you are not using depth charts when you make your projections, you're missing the boat. For example, one name that surfaces when talking about potential breakout guys this year is Az-Zahir Hakim (StL). The guy had a great year last year. He had 677 yards and 8 TD's, which likely garnered him a starting position in leagues that use 3 WR's. Those numbers appear to have "breakout year" written all over them, but that's only a small part of the big picture. Consider these factors:
When you factor these things in, you realize that Hakim is more likely to decline than improve. He may be worth grabbing a little later in your draft, but I think anyone taking him before the 10th round is taking him too high, unless his role changes before the season. The other major factor when projecting WR stats is the QB. If your guy is getting his passes from Billy Joe Tolliver, don't expect good numbers. Get the guys that have a QB like Warner, Manning, Favre, and Johnson. Again, this sounds simple, but it is important. I know, not everyone will have the chance to get Bruce, Harrison, Freeman, or Westbrook, but you get the idea. Look at the QB and think about how he will do this year. Do your homework, and you will be fine! The statsI've listed the 115 receivers I studied below. I included yards, touchdowns, and points for years one through four for your perusal. In situations where players did not get any real playing time in their rookie year due to injury or whatever, I did not include that year in their stats. Those players have notes associated with them below. Enjoy! | |