Welcome my fantasy brethren to the new Progno monthly. Glad to have you aboard as always. I am getting so psyched up for the season I am starting the writing a little early as traditionally, I do not start the Progno pump till August. This has been a busy off-season for the Progno.

I have been polishing the databases, waxing the monitor and shining the keyboard so this will be the best season ever! Once again I want to thank each and every one of you for taking the time to hang with the ole’ Progno.

Those new to the Progno will find a little entertainment, a little information, some would say VERY little, and a little spice just to fuel the eternal fire that is a football fan. This will be the sixth year I have written the Prognosticator series and it becomes more and more enjoyable thanks to the good people like you. Yes there are a few Jets fans that get a little rambunctious at times and last season the Seahawks fans came out of the closet en mass, but for the most part we are a civil group that enjoy poking a little fun at the game.

Those that read the weekly Progno, currently at thehuddle.com, have no fear! This monthly edition has not replaced the weekly. This forum opens the door for me to address bigger issues and bigger thoughts that simply cannot be covered in the weekly. So buckle your seat belt and hold onto your hat, it is time to do a little expose, Progno style.

Let me toss a little Progno philosophy your way (duck!). If you boil it all down, the origin of Sports is not a competitive environment to keep your waistline intact without having to go through the grind of weight work. Way back in Roman times when gladiators kicked the shingles out of each other, or in Spain where the matadors danced with the bulls, or on Sunday afternoon watching your division rival kick the smoke out of your home town team, the reason that sport was taking place was to entertain the masses. Society’s leaders have long recognized to keep a peaceful populace they must be entertained. Theater, the arts and sports exist to entertain us and keep us from setting fire to expensive government buildings. Without entertainment, human beings would cause so much mischief the world would not be a fun place to live. Actually, I guess some in Los Angeles would argue the other way.

Based on this premise I looked at the game of football, and recognizing it exists for entertainment, knew an article about football that entertained already targets the reasons why people watch football in the first place. Hence "The Prognosticator" was born. Now apply this same concept to what ABC has done with MNF. Everyone is moaning over the whole Dennis Miller debacle. I argue that ABC finally, after all these years, has got it right. Dennis Miller may or may not make it go (I for one would still vote for Chris Rock in the booth) but ABC has finally figured it out. The good people watching love the spirit of competition while being entertained, because that is the very nature of sports.

Producer of MNF, Don Ohlmeyer wanted to create a broadcast that was "relevant, accessible, and unpredictable." Unpredictability in sports is what makes it entertaining and Dennis Miller is certainly unpredictable. Miller seems to have a "nerd’s knowledge of football" which for the average viewer will certainly get him by. Miller will be able to toss out Gale Sayers references and most will say to themselves, "yeah, I’ve heard of that guy." Miller will surprise on MNF because he brings just enough knowledge of the game to make him dangerous. When he makes a reference to a San Diego Charger passing record, Al can correct him by saying, "Uh, Den? The guy sitting next to you, Dan Fouts actually holds that record." Miller can laugh at himself and the game moves on. ABC for 30 years has taken the same tact most of the fantasy sports web sites out there have also taken. Trying to build up this impressive array of credentials with names bandied about like they invented the hobby, when all the people really want is to be entertained. The formula of entertainer coupled with knowledge and style, is exactly what the booth needs and I prognosticate we will all be pleasantly surprised, even if we do not understand a word Dennis Miller is saying.

I looked around me a while back and saw all these dry articles about why you should draft a stud RB, or how you should draft your team, or why so and so is such a great pick. Blaaaahhhh! Why is it that everyone is trying to cram information down your throat like they know it so much better than you? Do they really? Think about it, what does expert XYZ really have on you? Connections in the locker room? Nope. Direct line to the head coach? Nope. Cheerleader is their girlfriend? Maybe. They read the same stuff you do. Think the same stuff you do. Can conjecture that Randy Moss may have less success with a rookie QB under center just like you do. Want to know how you can become a truly dominating fantasy player? Do it yourself. Break the mold and think for yourself. Learn from your mistakes and learn the only person who really knows is you. If every year you buy that same magazine, then apply your little draft strategy to their players, realize you will fail. Make your own player list, apply your own draft strategy and learn. Truly analyze your successes and failures. You will become a fantasy god in no time.

People listen up, because this is important. A magazine, or on-line draft list, often times is nothing more than a politically correct public opinion poll. There are exceptions of course and some of the publishers/webmasters out here really do post what they think and do not give a snot about what other people think. Be sure to scrutinize each list for players that look a little odd where they are placed. If you find one, you will have found yourself someone who truly thinks for themselves. I saw a draft list the other day that had Randy Moss ranked as the 19th WR. That tells me those guys have the guts to call it like they see it and should be admired for it.

Since I have been following this hobby for over a decade now, the #1 consensus pick has NEVER happened. In fact, the #1 consensus pick almost always is no where near the top 10. So if that is the case, why not make James Stewart the #1 pick? Or Ron Dayne? History has proven you have a better chance at drafting the top pick in the draft if you do NOT draft the supposed consensus #1 pick. History has proven time and time again, if you draft Edgerrin James #1 someone else will draft the real #1. Did anyone draft Edgerrin James with their #1 pick last year?

Here is a conversation I had a few years ago with an owner of a famous fantasy web site that you have all heard of (not this one).

Progno: Hey, I don’t know about you but I think player ABC is going to crank out the stats this season, I’m surprised you don’t have him in your top 10?

Famous Site: Yeah, I agree with you, in that offense sparks should fly but if I move him up I will look like an idiot.

Progno: Idiot?

Famous Site: Everyone expects Brett Favre to be the man this year.

Progno: And?

Famous Site: I can’t afford to look like an idiot because who will come to my site if I don’t have Favre #1 like everyone else?

Progno: Eh?

Famous Site: How can I call myself an expert if I don’t have the consensus #1 pick on top of my draft board?

Progno: Oy?

Famous Site: That’s the game buddy boy.

Progno: Wha?

Famous Site: Yeah, and I saw your draft list, what were you doing with Tim Brown over Jerry Rice?

Progno: I .. uhh .. think Tim Brown will have a better year than Jerry Rice?

Famous Site: It looks stupid man. No one will believe that and you’ll look stupid.

Progno: Wuuzzzzup?

Think I’m kidding? Think again. Welcome to the way the world works people. Make your own draft list and when someone in your league laughs because you picked someone three rounds ahead of where they had him on their freshly downloaded projections from myphoneydraftlist.com. Laugh along with them as you steam-roll them Week 9 on your way to an undefeated season and the championship laurels.

Till next month my fantasy brethren stay well and remember, preseason is upon us. I smell it in the air. Are you ready for some football?!?

Comments, complaints, praise? Some topic you would like to see the Progno cover? Send it along to theprogno@yahoo.com .