Considering Opponents - July 2001
written by Bob Bost
 
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Nearly every fantasy football magazine or website includes an article on the strength of teams schedule for 2001 and how this should impact players on those teams.  In all of these, the only thing considered is the win-loss record of the teams your player will face.  This is nice if you are interested in whether the real-life team your player is on will win.  But what does that mean for your running back?  Does it really matter if his team wins or loses?  Or are you more interested in how many TD’s he will get?

Examples of this are plentiful.  Minnesota and Miami were both 11-5 last year but the similarities end there.  Minnesota gave up 5,915 yards and 40 touchdowns compared to Miami’s 4,906 yards and a skimpy 22 touchdowns.  Washington ended the season with an 8-8 record while giving up 4,757 yards and 21 touchdowns.  Of the 16 teams with better records, only 2 gave up fewer yards.  What can be garnered from this information?  Simply put, it doesn’t matter whether the opponents won as much as it does how they won.

I have analyzed the 2001 schedules of each team based on how many touchdowns and yardage their opponents gave up for both rushing and receiving/passing in 2000 and quite a few changes occurred.  Instead of Cincinnati facing the 19th ranked schedule, they actually have the second hardest as their opponents gave up only 1.86 touchdowns per game.  On the other side, the Giants have the 10th hardest schedule based on records, but they are 28th when you only look at touchdowns.

One other thing to look at is what has occurred during the off-season to impact the below.  Some defenses became noticeably better while others have declined.  For example, teams in the NFC east will face noticeably worse defenses with the Giants benefiting the most.  Minnesota, Cincinnati and Cleveland are among the teams that will be facing improved defenses.

 

PASSING   RUSHING
Team Pass TD's Pass Yds   Team Rush TD's Rush Yds
CIN 17.1 3,280   MIN 10.8 1,648
PIT 17.6 3,360   IND 11.4 1,648
GNB 18.3 3,504   SEA 11.7 1,696
JAC 18.5 3,424   CLE 11.8 1,648
MIN 18.8 3,456   ARI 11.8 1,808
TEN 18.8 3,488   NYJ 11.9 1,728
IND 19.1 3,520   NWE 12.4 1,744
DAL 19.1 3,520   TAM 12.4 1,760
STL 19.1 3,584   MIA 12.5 1,712
CHI 19.4 3,552   CIN 12.6 1,680
NYJ 19.6 3,568   JAC 12.6 1,680
BAL 19.8 3,472   PIT 12.8 1,680
MIA 20.0 3,600   TEN 12.8 1,728
BUF 20.1 3,552   BUF 13.1 1,824
NWE 20.4 3,568   STL 13.1 1,872
CLE 20.5 3,424   KAN 13.2 1,712
NOR 20.5 3,680   DEN 13.4 1,744
SFO 20.5 3,584   SFO 13.4 1,856
ARI 20.6 3,488   GNB 13.5 1,728
NYG 20.7 3,520   BAL 13.7 1,808
TAM 20.8 3,520   NOR 13.7 1,808
CAR 20.9 3,600   OAK 13.9 1,776
DET 21.2 3,552   DAL 14.6 1,872
SDG 21.4 3,648   CAR 14.7 1,872
ATL 21.5 3,632   CHI 14.8 1,856
PHI 21.6 3,536   WAS 14.8 1,888
WAS 21.8 3,568   ATL 14.8 1,920
SEA 22.2 3,584   SDG 15.0 1,840
OAK 22.3 3,600   DET 15.3 1,920
DEN 22.5 3,600   NYG 15.7 1,968
KAN 22.6 3,680   PHI 15.8 1,920
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