You just got done checking the official NFL Injury Report.  You found some bad news.  One of your starters is listed as “Questionable” and your lineup is due in 24 hours. Now what? 

"Why Me?” you say, after which, you start thinking: 

1) Who on my bench could step in?

2) Who can I pick up on the waiver wire?

3) Just how bad is my player really hurt?

4) Is my starter worth taking a chance on?

5) How good is my team, relative to the competition?

Perhaps, in the end, you show a little faith, take a chance, go with your “Questionable” player and hope he'll get the job done.

But, at its core, good fantasy football roster management is not based on hope.  Rather, it’s about making informed choices.  To get you some facts, 4for4 researched the dreaded “Questionable” status.  Point blank, we had one question in mind: 

How do NFL players perform when listed as Questionable?

To address this question, we obtained official NFL Injury Reports on over 900 games.  Next, we focused on all QB, RB, and WR listed as “Questionable.”  We removed all other players from the analysis. Also, if two weeks prior to being listed as “Questionable”, the player was listed on the NFL injury report, we removed him from the analysis.  This process provided us with 175 players to analyze (32 QBs, 61 RBs and 82 WRs). 

Next, we simply examined how the 175 players performed the week they were listed as “Questionable.”  For the quarterbacks, we tallied how many TD passes they threw and how many passing yards they gained.  For the RBs and WRs, we tallied total yards gained from scrimmage and total TDs.  At this point, we put the information into Table #1 below.   

  Table #1  Production of 175 NFL Players listed as “Questionable”

The above information, as is, has little value, it lacks context. So, we needed to come up with some fair and accurate comparison points.  Specifically, we needed to determine what these 175 players usually produce (when they’re not listed on the official NFL Injury report). 

So, we went back to each of the 175 players and reviewed their performance two weeks prior to being listed as “Questionable.”  Recall, in these prior games, all 175 players did not appear on the official NFL Injury report. 

We now had something to compare the information in Table #1 against. In other words, we could now get a feeling for how these 175 players usually perform when “Healthy.”   

Just to make sure your still with us, below we’ll review 1 of the 175 case studies used in the analysis.  Here, we’ll look at (RB) Emmitt Smith.  In Week #11 of the 1999 season, Emmitt Smith was listed as “Questionable” for the Cowboys-Cards game. Despite the “Questionable” status, Emmitt played and gained 127 yards and 0 TD.  In Week #9 (two weeks prior to his “Questionable” status), Emmitt was “healthy” and did not appear on the NFL injury report.  That week, the “healthy” Emmitt picked up 140 yards and 2 TDs against Minnesota. 

So, in this example, we get: 

Case Study #1 of 175  -  1999 Dallas Cowboys  -  Emmitt Smith  -  Running Back 

As you can see, Emmitt generated better stats when he was “healthy” and not “Questionable.”  But, don’t jump to any conclusions.  This is just 1 case out of 175. Certainly many things, in addition to injury, played a role in Emmitt’s Week 9 and 11 performances. That’s why we looked at 175 case studies. 

If your with us, let’s dig in! 

So what do you think happened?  Collectively, did these 175 NFL players do better when “Healthy?"  Do you think they did about the same regardless of injury status?  Could they actually have done better when listed as “Questionable?”    

Think about it, take your time. Now, “Is that your final answer?"

Perhaps you might want to consult Table #2 before you answer.  In Table #2, you’ll find the summary stats for the 175 players when they were “Healthy” and did not appear on the NFL Injury report. 

Table #2 Production of 175 NFL Players when not on the NFL Injury Report

What are the two tables of data telling us? As you might expect, everything else being equal, NFL players, on average, do indeed perform better when “healthy.”   What do you know, those injury reports actually contain a degree of truth in them after all!  

So, when your player is listed as “Questionable”, plan on his numbers taking a dive. Clearly, it doesn’t always go that way.  In fact, we found many times when the “Questionable” player had a great game.  However, on average, production will go down!  

By utilizing the two tables above, we can quantify the expected decrease. Here are a few rules of thumb: 

à When your QB is listed as “Questionable”: expect a 25-30% decrease in his TD passing production. But expect only a 2-5% drop from his usual passing yardage. 

à If your RB is listed as “Questionable”, plan on a 45-50% decrease from his normal TD production.  Also, count on a 30-35% drop in yardage. 

à If your WE is “Questionable”, you can also plan on a 45-50% drop in TD production. In addition, plan for 35-40% fewer yards than normal. 

Again, you’ll find many exceptions to these guidelines.  But, as you can see from above, in each and every statistical category, we found a clear decrease in performance when a player goes from “healthy” to “questionable.”  

Well, with that, I hope you have some facts to help guide your roster management this year. 

As always, best of luck (and please don’t break a leg)!

Greg
Article by Greg Alan. Greg is a leading contributor at 4for4.com and a respected analyst with pioneering interests in Artificial Intelligence, advanced statistical methods and sports research. 

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