Each year football fans hear hype about top rated collegiate players entering the NFL draft. As part of the ritual, stock phrases abound. 

Later, we find out these guys are human. However, when given a chance, do highly drafted rookies typically produce? On average, do they represent a good value proposition for the fantasy football player? We did some investigating.

Rather than focus on a few exceptions, we researched 100 rookies over 5 years. All of these rookies were early NFL draft picks. Most were selected in the first or second round of the NFL draft. We examined the top 4 QBs, 6 RBs, 7 WRs and 3 TEs drafted each year from 1995 to 2000.  That’s twenty players per year (for five years). The 100 players used in this study are found in Table I.

Clearly, if a rookie QB is holding a clipboard all game, it’s safe to say, he isn’t going to produce. In this study, we only examined games in which the rookies were given a fair shot at playing, namely games in which they started. 

After inspecting Table I, we see several top-rated rookies really shined (Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Randy Moss and Fred Taylor). But, check out Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, Thomas Jones and Donovan McNabb.  So overall, what did we discover? 

Finding #1: We examined 93 NFL games in which a highly drafted rookie quarterback started. On average, these rookies put up 181.7 passing yards and tossed 1.05 TDs per game. This represents rather minimal production, but perhaps not as bad as some might think.

Finding #2: On average, highly drafted wide receivers generate 47 yards and 0.37 TDs per start during their rookie season. This finding is based on 249 games. Generally speaking, highly drafted rookie wide receivers do a reasonable job when given a chance. They produce about as much as a typical NFL starter. Overall, the average production for a starting NFL wide receiver, independent of experience level or draft status, is 55 yards and 0.35 TDs. 

Finding #3: After examining 216 relevant NFL games, we found highly drafted running backs generate 80.5 total yards (63.3 rushing, 17.2 receiving) and 0.53 TDs per start during their rookie season. Overall, that’s rather respectable production.

Finding #4: We examined 78 NFL games in which a highly drafted rookie tight end was in the starting lineup. On average, these rookies produced 28.9 receiving yards and 0.26 TDs per game. This output is almost identical to that of an average starting NFL TE, independent of experience level or draft status.  

Using fairly objective measures, we see highly drafted rookie Running Backs do rather well when they are inserted into the starting lineup. Highly drafted rookie Wide Receivers and Tight Ends produce about as much as average NFL starters. Finally, we have quantified the widely held belief that rookie QBs generally face tough sledding when rushed into service in their first NFL season.

At this point, I took a pause and raised a few more questions. Namely, do all “highly drafted” rookies have the same potential? Are expectations the same? How accurate is it to lump 1^st round picks in with 3^rd and 4^th round picks?

It would seem reasonable to assume the 1^st player picked in the NFL draft is in a different tier than say the 75^th selection. Talent scouts, senior team executives and high paid NFL coaches know what they are doing, right? All these questions drove us to more research and some more facts!

To succinctly address most of the questions raised in the paragraph above, we next examined rookie production based on round drafted. Again we only consider stats in games in which the rookie actually started. The results are found in Tables II to IV.

TABLE II: Average Production for a Starting Rookie QB

TABLE III: Average Production for a Starting Rookie RB

TABLE IV: Average Production for a Starting Rookie WR

Finding #5: Although not perfectly correlated, the higher a player is drafted, the better his production when inserted into the starting lineup during his rookie year. This is especially true when it comes to rookie running backs. Running backs drafted in the first round, on average, gain almost 95 yards from scrimmage and generate 0.59 TDs per start. Top rookie runners often take to the NFL game well and need only perfect a handful of plays. On some NFL teams, rookie runners only handle the ball on one of six set plays.

Finding #6: Overall, QBs selected in the first round don’t perform that well in their rookie year. In fact, draft round has little correlation with QB output. By the numbers, rookie QBs drafted in the 2^nd round actually outperform 1^st round signal callers.

Finding #7: Albeit from a rather small sample size, but when a 3^rd or 4^th round QB is forced into the starting lineup in their rookie season, you can anticipate anemic production. In fact, within our sample, the best single-game performance from a rookie QB drafted after the 2^nd round amounted to only 192 passing yards! The best single-game performance among our entire rookie QB sample goes to Jake Plummer in 1997. In Week #15, Plummer tallied 337 yards and 4 TDs.

Summary Time 

Looking for a sure thing? Excited about the “big-play threat with sprinter speed and a cannon for an arm.” Despite respected scouts saying “he can’t miss,” there are no sure bets when it comes to 1^st year performances. In fact, based on recent history, this research shows mediocrity usually characterizes rookie performance. 

If you gamble on a rookie QB, be prepared for some disappointment. Keep in mind, quarterbacks Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, Rick Mirer, David Klingler, Tommy Maddox, Dan McGuire, Todd Marinovich and Andre Ware were all highly coveted 1^st round NFL draft picks!

In general, during their rookie year, when given the same opportunity, 1st round draft picks will outperform 2nd round picks. In addition, 2nd round picks usually outperform 3rd and 4th round selections. However, many exceptions to this rule exist and the Quarterback position is often the hardest to predict. 

If you must take a calculated risk, try going with a rookie running back. When given a chance, highly drafted rookie running backs, especially 1^st round selections, generally can make an impact

Greg
Article by Greg Alan. Greg is a leading contributor at 4for4.com and a respected analyst with pioneering interests in Artificial Intelligence, advanced statistical methods and sports research. 

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