Targeting Playoff Teams - February 2001
written by Terry Cannon
 
ARTICLE REPRODUCED FOR FREE AT WWW.DRAFTGUIDE.COM 		Draft Guide
 
When we think of preparing for the upcoming fantasy season, it's a good idea to not only project the future, but to learn from the past. Well, the Super Bowl is over and we've had a few weeks away from the fantasy wars. For most sane people it's a long way to the next fantasy football season. For the rest of us it's time to start making those projections that will earn a return to the playoffs. Waiting until July may be the most comfortable option, but.. now, even before the NFL player draft is the best time to begin getting mentally prepared and pre-sort our priorities.

Even now, it's very safe to assume that the Culpeppers, Warners, Faulks, Williams, and Owens of our hobby will be hot properties during the late-summer drafts. The question is not if we should target them. Because a players production is directly tied to his team's success, the question is how much we will target them.

Strength of schedule is an established tool in projecting both team and individual performance. In the early years, salty FFLers would seek an edge by self-tabulating these now common charts. It allows us a quick view of who has the softer paths to success.

 

 2001 Strength Of Schedule

Rank

Team

 2000 W-L

Opp. W-L

Opp. W-L%

vs.
+.500 teams

vs.
playoff teams

1T

 Denver

11-5

118-138

.461

6

6

1T

 Washington

8-8

118-138

.461

7

6

3T

 San Diego

1-15

119-137

.465

5

5

3T

 Philadelphia

11-5

119-137

.465

6

6

5

 Buffalo

8-8

120-136

.469

8

5

6

 Atlanta

4-12

122-134

.477

7

6

7

 Detroit

9-7

123-133

.480

9

6

8T

 Carolina

7-9

124-132

.484

8

6

 8T

 Oakland

12-4

124-132

.484

8

7

10T

 Cleveland

3-11

125-131

.488

8

4

10T

 Chicago

5-11

125-131

.488

9

5

12

 New England

5-11

126-130

.492

9

7

13T

 Cincinnati

4-12

127-129

.496

9

5

13T

 New Orleans

10-6

127-129

.496

7

6

13T

 Seattle

6-10

127-129

.496

7

7

13T

 Dallas

5-11

127-129

.496

8

7

17T

 Arizona

 3-13

128-128

.500

7

6

17T

 Baltimore

12-4

128-128

.500

9

6

17T

 Jacksonville

7-9

128-128

.500

8

5

20

 Kansas City

7-9

129-127

.504

9

7

21T

 N.Y. Giants

12-4

130-126

.508

8

7

21T

 San Francisco

6-10

130-126

.508

9

7

23

 St. Louis

13-3

131-125

.512

9

7

24T

 Pittsburgh

9-6

132-124

.516

8

6

24T

 Tennessee

13-3 

132-124

.516

10

6

26T

 Miami

11-5

133-123

.520

8

6

26T

 Jets

9-7

133-123

.520

8

7

28

 Green Bay

9-7

136-120

.531

9

7

29

 Indianapolis

10-6

138-118

.539

9

7

30

 Tampa Bay

10-6

142-114

.555

12

7

31

 Minnesota

11-5

147-109

.574

12

7
 

With special thanks to Mike Krueger's FFToday site for the 2001 schedule table.


While the Eagles and Chargers are not equal teams, they do have nearly equal 2001 schedule difficultly. How good NFL teams can be this year may depend on how bad they were last year -- never underestimate the value of a "last-place schedule" or the additional challenges facing division champions.

In 2000, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Arizona, Oakland, Denver, New Orleans, San Francisco, Tennessee, Jacksonville , and NY Giants had the most attractive opponent won-loss records. Seven of those ten teams made the playoffs. The entire AFC East was bottom ranked going into the season. Aside from them, only the Vikings advanced into the playoffs from a difficult schedule.

Last year was not a fluke, either. In 1998, six of the top eight qualified for the playoffs! Remember the wacky 1999 season? Five more of the teams with softer schedules advanced. In these times of rapid playoff changes, information like this can alter our draft priorities and in-season success.

 
After ignoring any team with four or fewer wins the prior season, a positive pattern between winners and ease of schedule exist. These teams advanced to the playoffs over the past three seasons.

2000

 1999

1998
 1 .Philadelphia 1 .St Louis 1.Arizona
2 .St. Louis 2 .Washington 2.San Francisco
3t.Oakland  3t.Buffalo  3 .Miami
 5t.New Orleans  4 .Tennessee  4.Buffalo
 5t.Denver  5 .Jacksonville 7t. Dallas
 7 .Tennessee    8 .Atlanta
 9 .NY Giants    9t. NY Jets


Looking for the surprise Tiki Barber or Brian Griese of the 2001 season? Look no further than at a player's strength of schedule for a hint as to who'll have an outstanding opportunity. Fantasy production is not always about best talent, but more about how good a player's competition is week in and week out

TC~

Everyone knows TC. He is entering his 16th season as an active fantasy football participant and his seventh season as a leading member of the online FF community. In addition to hosting the popular YouthFantasyFootball.com and FanEx websites, he is active in various other projects within our hobby. Specifically, he has become a popular freelance writer whose work has been widely published both online and in print. Yep, everyone knows TC... sooner or later.
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