Rule 1 - Most rookie quarterbacks don't perform well in their first year as a pro.  Quarterbacks generally have a lot to learn.  More importantly, they don't adjust well to what NFL defensive coordinators throw at them in the form of blitz's, stunts, dog's, etc.

Rule 2 - Running backs are more likely to produce in their rookie season. The transition is just a lot easier. Keep this in perspective though.  For every Edgerrin James, there are three busts. Remember the first year for JR Redmond, Ron Dayne and Thomas Jones?  Hey, they even stunk in their second year.

Rule 3 – While rookie receivers can be productive, the odds are against them. As a rule, only 20% of rookie receivers make any real fantasy impact. They require time to gel with their respective  quarterback and have a difficult time adjusting to the more aggressive corners and blocking assignments.  Generally, wide outs do much better their sophomore year.

With these rules in mind, let’s take a look at the Rookie Class of 2002...

Quarterbacks:

While the cast of rookie quarterbacks holds great promise, none should find their way onto your fantasy roster this year.  David Carr and Joey Harrington might be special players, but they won’t produce big fantasy numbers this year.

David Carr, Houston Texans
(6’3”, 230 lbs., 4.80)  Carr is a franchise player, who has the tools to compete in the pros. He has the best arm of the bunch, a quick release and good instincts. We feel that Carr will start for the Texans, but don’t get too excited. The Texans will run a very conservative offense. Why? The team doesn’t want Carr to get beat up and they need to build his confidence.  Given the situation, we don’t suggest you draft Carr unless you’re in a keeper league.

Joey Harrington, Detroit Lions
(6’3”, 220 lbs., 4.87)

If Carr is a #1 player, then Harrington is a #1A. He’s right there as far as ability, leadership and instincts. While Harrington will be starting by the end of the year, he probably won’t get the nod for the first few games.  As with Carr, we can’t advise you to draft Harrington unless you’re in a keeper league.

Patrick Ramsey, Washington Redskins
(6’3”, 225 lbs., 5.05)

Ramsey certainly has the tools and desire to play in the NFL.  He’s very accurate and throws a nice deep ball. Moreover, he’ll see little competition in Shane Mattews and Danny Wuerffel.  While Ramsey could be the surprise quarterback of the year, don’t draft him. He’ll have a difficult time breaking into the Top 20.

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard will serve as the back-up to Brunell.  Barring an injury, Garrard will have no fantasy impact this year.

Josh McCown, Arizona Cardinals
Look for McCown to be buried on the depth chart behind Chris Griesen.

Kurt Kittner, Atlanta Falcons
Look for Kittner to be buried on the depth chart behind Doug Johnson.

Rohan Davey, New England Patriots
Look for Davey to be buried on the depth chart behind Damon Huard.
 

Running Backs:

The corps of backs this year is only average.  Maybe we were spoiled by the exceptional talent with last year’s class of backs.  That aside, there are a couple of players who should be targeted in your draft plans.

William Green, Cleveland Browns
(6’1”, 217 lbs., 4.42)   This guy is a complete back.  He is a clone of Edgerrin James, which speaks volumes. Look for Green to start immediately and make a big fantasy impact. How big you ask? We feel that Green should end the year with well over 1,500 multi-purpose yards.

T.J. Duckett, Atlanta Falcons
(6’1”, 250 lbs., 4.55)

Duckett is a big, strong, bruising back. He’s been compared to Ron Dayne and Jerome Bettis. Actually, Duckett is a stronger better back than Dayne and a better east-west runner than Bettis.  With the departure of Jamal Anderson, look for the Falcons to use the tandem of Duckett and Warrick Dunn. We envision Duckett getting about 15-18 carries a game. With his size and strength, he’ll also be used in goal line situations.  If Duckett can catch on to the offense, he could be big down the stretch.

DeShaun Foster, Carolina Panthers
(6’1”, 222 lbs., 4.52)

Make no mistake about it… Foster is a better back than Lamar Smith. He’s faster, quicker and more elusive than Smith.  Because of his ability and potential, Foster will be the starter in Carolina. The 31 year old Smith will assume the role of a back-up and occasionally spell the rookie.

Clinton Portis, Denver Broncos
(5’11”, 204 lbs., 4.30)

The Broncos have a plethora of backs. Always wanted to use the word plethora. ?  Look for Terrell Davis to start, but not finish. Olandis Gary will fill in as a back-up, while Mike Anderson will play fullback. So where’s that leave Portis? Actually, he may be starting by mid-season.  Remember, Coach Shanahan has a knack for picking backs.  If you draft Davis, you better grab Portis in the latter rounds.

Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles
With the injury to Buckhalter, the Eagles will rely on Westbrook to back-up Duce Staley. The Division
1-AA standout is unproven, but has a lot of potential. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles also target another back in free agency.

Josh Scobey, Arizona Cardinals
The Cards are unsure of Thomas Jones’ ability in goal line situations. They needed a goal line back and drafted Scobey for the job. Scobey is a physical, aggressive, north-south runner, who’s better suited than Jones. Scobey will steal touchdowns from Jones and hurt his fantasy value. Scobey could be a sleeper in TD Only leagues.

Jonathan Wells, Houston Texans
Look for James Allen to carry the ball between the 20’s and Wells to be the designated scorer.  If Allen falters, then the team will turn to Wells.

Luke Staley, Detroit Lions
Staley will serve as a back-up to James Stewart, but could surprise. He’s a great fit for the West Coast offense of the Lions.  This could be a guy to watch in the camp.

Maurice Morris, Seattle Seahawks
Morris will battle Jay Graham for the back-up role behind Shaun Alexander. He’ll have no fantasy value this year.

Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins
Betts will serve as a back-up behind Stephen Davis. Barring injury, he’ll have no real fantasy value.
 

Wide Receivers:

While there are a couple of receivers who hold promise, we don’t expect big numbers from any this year. Many of the more talented receivers, were not drafted by teams who will rely heavily on the passing game. Remember the rule… receivers generally perform better in their sophomore year.

Reche Caldwell, San Diego Chargers
(6’0”, 200 lbs., 4.48)   Caldwell will start immediately and have a huge impact… just not in receiving. Caldwell is an aggressive blocker with a mean streak. Because of his blocking skills, Caldwell will positively impact the running game. More good news for Ladanian Tomlinson owners.

Jabbar Gaffney, Houston Texans
(6’1”, 200 lbs., 4.48)

Gaffney is a talented receiver and red zone threat. While he could use some additional seasoning, he’ll likely start for the Texans.  Don’t expect much production though. The Texans will employ a very conservative offense.

Donte Stallworth, New Orleans Saints
(6’1”, 190 lbs., 4.28)

Stallworth is for real. He’s got blazing speed, soft hands and a great attitude. Stallworth won’t start, but he’ll play in three receiver sets.  Don’t look for big numbers this year, but he could be a pleasant surprise if Jerome Pathon struggles.  Keep an eye on this guy if you’re in a keeper league.

Ashley Lelie, Denver Broncos
Everything you could want in a receiver. Will play some in multi-receiver sets. Limited impact unless Smith or McCaffrey goes down.

Josh Reed, Buffalo Bills
Great possession guy, who will endear himself to Bledsoe. Starts off as the #3 receiver.

Javon Walker, Green Bay Packers
A big target who is fearless over the middle. Starts off as the #3 receiver.

Antonio Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
Buried on depth chart, no real QB, suffers from “Star Syndrome”… Need we say more?

Marquise Walker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The signing of McCardell means Walker will likely sit on the bench.

Andre Davis, Cleveland Browns
Will be used primarily as a return specialist and in multi receiver sets.  Has a bright future, especially if KJ doesn’t sign an extension.
 

Tight Ends:

The draft was extremely deep in this position.  There are some extremely talented players in this group. However, even the best started off humble. Don’t risk  going into the season with one of these guys as your starter.

Jerramy Stevens, Seattle Seahawks
(6’7”, 260 lbs., 4.80)  Many experts believe that Stevens is a better tight end than Shockey.  Stevens’ off-the-field behavior probably caused him to slide in the draft.  With Christian Fuaria gone, the starting job is Stevens to lose. Look for the rookie to be a favorite target of Trent Dilfer. Be cautious though, Stevens is only good enough to be your back-up tight end.
 
Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants
(6’5”, 250 lbs., 4.63)

Shockey is a converted wide receiver, so he has great hands and runs precise routes. He excels at finding soft spots in coverage. With his athletic ability and receiving skills, we feel that Shockey will start immediately for the Giants.

Daniel Graham, New England Patriots
(6’3”, 245 lbs., 4.55)

Daniel Graham, Christian Fuaria and Cam Cleeland will all be fighting for the starting role. The Pats desparately need a quality tight end, but it’s too early to pick a starter.  There’s no doubt that Cleeland is the most talented, but he’s a bit fragile.

Matt Schobel, Cincinnati Bengals
Will challenge Sean Brewer for the starting job. Schobel really needs more time to develop.

Robert Royal, Washington Redskins
Royal will battle Zeron Flemister and Walter Rasby for the starting role. No real fantasy value.

Doug Jolley, Oakland Raiders
Jolley’s biggest contribution will come via special teams and as a long snapper.

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