| Fact or Fiction - June 2003 written by Kirk “Dr.Football” Bouyelas (www.drfootball.com) ARTICLE REPRODUCED FOR FREE AT WWW.DRAFTGUIDE.COM |
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While channel surfing the other night I came across a show dealing with the subject of urban legends. The show profiled several stories, including the guy who went to KFC and got a fried rat in his 2-piece with fries. I’ve personally heard of that one for several years and dreaded biting into any piece of fried chicken that didn’t look quite right. At any rate, the show featured these stories and investigated to determine if they were fact of fiction. By the way, the fried rat was determined to be fiction. While watching the show’s host debunk the majority of these urban legends, it dawned on me that many fantasy football owners have similar “fantasy football legends” ingrained in their psyche. We’ve all heard the folklore of certain coaches and players in our fantasy circles. They have been told over and over again, until they are accepted as fact. But are these legends actually factual? Can they be debunked? Let’s take a look at a couple of fantasy myths and see what our investigation can uncover. Fantasy Myth or Fact? Steve Spurrier’s “Fun-n-Gun” offense is pass happy and depends little on the running game. Ahhh – the “Fun-n-Gun” offense. Many believe that this is just Spurrier’s name for the “Run & Shoot”, which concentrates on the passing game over the running game. The name leads one to picture the quarterback as a gunslinger – gunning the ball to his receivers. By mere virtue of the name, many fans believe that the “Fun-n-Gun” is a pass happy offense. But is this legend accurate? In researching this fantasy legend, I reviewed the last six years of Spurrier’s coaching career. The table below highlights the rushing and passing attempts during that time. Coach Spurrier’s Run-Pass Ratio
As you can tell from this chart, the run-pass ratio is rather revealing. For the most part, Spurrier appears to have a rather balanced offense. The stats suggest that Spurrier’s “Fun-n-Gun” offense is more “run” than initially thought. However, to get a true picture of the pass-run ratio, let’s compare these numbers to the Top 10 rushing offenses in the NFL last year. Top 10 Rushing Offenses (by Rushing Attempts)
By analyzing these numbers, one can see that Miami, Atlanta and Tennessee are predominate run oriented offenses. By that, I mean that they rushed the ball more than half the time. However, the remaining seven offenses averaged a run-pass ratio of 47% - 53% respectively. That average is only slightly higher than Spurrier’s average run-pass ratio of 45% - 55% respectively. Conclusion: MYTH Fantasy Myth or Fact? Running backs under 220 lbs. cannot take the pounding of a 16 game schedule and therefore cannot be a featured back in the NFL. This is probably one of my favorite topics to discuss with my fantasy football buddies. I can almost hear them now… Eddie George (236 lbs.), Ricky Williams (228 lbs.), Stephen Davis (235 lbs.), Shaun Alexander (230 lbs.) and Jamal Lewis (235 lbs.) – those are prototypical NFL running backs. These guys have the bulk needed to endure a 16 game schedule. Sounds logical, but is it true? In researching this myth, I began by researching the running backs of years past that were in the 205 lb. range. I wanted to see if any could be located and what their history indicated. Several backs were examined and the following was noted. Past Players (205 lbs)
Of these well known running backs, all had careers which lasted over 10 years in the league. Moreover, all of the backs were productive performers for much of their careers. Obviously, the fact that none were over 206 lbs., discounts the commonly believed myth that featured backs need to be at least 220 lbs. to succeed. But wait… My astute buds informed me that Payton, Dorsett and company played during a time when 300 lb. players were extremely rare. The size of the today’s defenders plays havoc with the smaller backs. Apple and oranges, they say. Well, my research continued and I searched for some current running backs that were in the 205 lb. range. Here’s what I found… Current Players (205 lbs.)
There is no doubt that these backs clearly indicate the fallacy of the “bulky” back theory. Smith, Martin and Faulk are all still playing in the league and have been very productive during their tenure. Due to injury, Davis will probably never return. However, even larger backs have suffered ACL injuries. The size and/or bulk of the player does not indicate a propensity for an ACL injury. It could happen to anyone, even 300 lb. behemoths. While Portis has only one-year of experience, he obviously proved his ability to be a featured back last year and in years to come. Conclusion: MYTH Kirk “Dr.Football” Bouyelas is the co-owner of FantasyAsylum.com. Kirk originally founded Dr.Football. This off-season, FantasyAsylum.com merged with Komments.com, DrFootball.com and David Grey's Fantasy Football Report, to form the new and improved: FantasyAsylum.com. |
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