Does it Matter Who You Draft with Your 1^st Pick?

Who should I pick with the first pick in my draft? At this time of year, that’s probably the most asked question by fantasy football owners. Should I grab Tomlinson, or maybe Ricky Williams? What about Portis or Marshall Faulk? Many owners agonize over this question for days, maybe even weeks. They crunch numbers, analyze trends, chart production and research everything. In the end, they are still confused about who to take. It’s paralysis by analysis!

By way of this article, I will answer the burning question of who to draft with the first pick. I will impart my years of wisdom and insight, to clear up the dilemma faced by countless owners. The answer will be derived from a unique 3-step method for determining the first pick. Ready?

1.  Take Tomlinson, Williams, Portis, Faulk or whoever else you feel worthy of the first pick.
2.  Place their names in a hat, shake up the selections and pick one - any one.  
3.  Draft that player. Seriously – draft that player.

Before you totally freak, let me explain… Your fantasy football success does not hinge on who you select with the first pick in your draft. If it did, what would be the need for a draft anyway? Obviously, owners need to prepare for a total and complete draft to win Championships. Because in the final analysis, if you only worry about your first pick, you’ll almost certainly lose your league. Let me say that again - your first pick will not ensure any wins for your team!

A wise fantasy owner knows that success comes from the picks made after the first round. Spend your time researching your 2nd through 9th round picks instead.  Who’s your starting quarterback going to be? Which round will you target him? Can you wait to grab a stud receiver? When will you need to pick a tight end? Should you go with a #2 running back or a #2 receiver first? These are the “make or break” questions that will ultimately determine your success. As I’ve often said… “A player’s fantasy value is not determined by their production, but rather where they were drafted.” Still confused? Let’s use an illustration to make this easier to understand.

Let’s pretend it’s “Draft Night” and you have the first pick in your draft. Sweet right? Everybody loves the first pick. You have researched this selection for weeks and feel confident that Ladanian Tomlinson is the consensus #1 pick. You draft Tomlinson and listen to the groans of your competition. You feel invincible, ready to take home the Championship.

It’s now the third round of the draft and a news report flickers on the television. Your draft buddies quiet down and you focus on the news report…  Chargers RB Ladanian Tomlinson just tore his ACL and is out for the year… It’s over right? Buying into the theory that Tomlinson will win your league by himself, you’re now sunk. You start having chest pains and clutching at your heart. Your buddies are laughing so loud, they don’t hear your screams for help… It’s the BIG ONE!  Not really. Pop a couple of nitroglycerin and read on…

Injuries happen all the time. There’s nothing you can do to stop them. Even if Tomlinson was out for the year, that wouldn’t totally break your team.  Remember those 2nd through 9th round picks? Now how valuable are those picks? If you think of it in this sense, you’ll understand my point. Don’t get hung up on the first pick.  Who you have as your RB2, WR2 and WR3 is more important than who you draft with the first pick. Look beyond the Tomlinson’s, Williams’ and Faulk’s of the draft and you’ll realize true fantasy success. Still not convinced?  Well, when were these guys drafted in your league last year? 
 

I’ll bet you that some of these guys were not even considered by many fantasy owners last year. Most were not even taken in the first 4-5 rounds. Yet, if you filled out your roster with these players, you probably made the playoffs.  Again, look beyond the first round and target the mid round “gems”.  That’s where Championships can be found.

Good luck and good drafting…
 

Kirk “Dr.Football” Bouyelas is the co-owner of FantasyAsylum.com. Kirk originally founded Dr.Football about 5-years ago.  This off-season, FantasyAsylum.com merged with Komments.com, DrFootball.com and David Grey's Fantasy Football Report, to form the new and improved FantasyAsylum.com.

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